Only a third of China’s trade surplus was with the United States, and only a third of the U.S. deficit was with China. That makes for tricky math for the president-elect.

China’s trade surplus with all nations reached a new record of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, according to multiple reports.

Trump has vowed to impose tariffs of as high as 60% on China, as well as lesser ones with the US’ biggest trade partners, threats that could upend global trade and economic growth. A harsher US tariffs regime could push China to seek stronger ties with developing nations: A new study by the Boston Consulting Group suggests that Beijing’s trade with the Global South — home to 62% of the world’s population — could surpass $1.